Myth: "At current rate of consumption …"
This is commonly used as a comforting statement to assure the public that there is no looming shortage of a given resource. "At the current rate of consumption" a given resource will last for at least X number of years. Usually, this is quite a long time. There is no problem.
Reality:
This very misleading myth is that the "current rate of consumption" does not represent the future. The rate of consumption of almost ail resources, particularly energy, is increasing every year. The increase in resource consumption is caused by three factors: population growth, a demand for an increase in per capita consumption of a resource to increase living standards, and a larger number of uses found for a given resource. Oil is the classic example which illustrates increased demand from all three causes. Present demand for oil is increasing at the rate of about two percent annually, which means demand will double in 35 years. "Current rate of consumption" has no realistic relationship to the future.
Demand does not grow arithmetically, but increases exponentially. That is, it goes up as a percentage each year over the previous year. Therefore, the statement that a depletable resource will last for X number of years "at current rate of consumption" has little relation to the reality of the actual life of the resource. A resource may have a life of 100 years at the "current rate of consumption." But, at the seemingly low rate of a five percent annual increase in demand, the resource will only last about 36 years. Because almost all resources are finite, and the population has no theoretical limit to growth, ultimately the population by its exponential growth of demand will overwhelm the available resource.
That we are living in a time of exponential growth is ably presented by Lapp in his classic book The Logarithmic Century.(18) That the general public does not appreciate the importance of the effect of exponential growth has been pointed out by Bartlett who has written a convincing discussion of the myth of "at current rate of consumption," and the large numbers which quickly result from a seemingly insignificant annual rate of increase in use of a resource.(3) In other writings and in numerous lectures, Bartlett has pointed out, by several striking examples, that this is one of the most dangerously misleading myths to which the public is continually exposed. He states, "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
A recent example of such a misleading statement regarding oil supplies is that made by a ranking oil industry analyst on a popular Friday night Public Broadcasting System program.(30) The statement, regarding world oil reserves, was that current supplies are "...enough to last us for 40 years at current consumption rates." This statement is grossly misleading for two reasons: First, "current consumption rates" are transitory, and demand for oil will continue to increase. "Current consumption rates" have little relevance to the future. Second, if the statement was to be taken literally it would mean that for 40 years we would have the same amount of oil available as we have today, but in the 41st year there would be none. This also has no relation to reality.
The production of a finite resource is never a flat line. In broad form, smoothing out irregularities caused by political, economic, and technological events, the production is a bell-shaped curve. (Figure 8) It is estimated now that world oil production will continue to increase until about the year 2010 (see Ivanhoe, Chapter 28 and Figure 9), and then begin a permanent decline. There is little, if any, possibility that the amount of oil available worldwide 40 years hence will be the same as today. It will be less, and the critical point is when world oil production begins to decline, not when the last drop of oil is ever pumped from the ground.
One might peripherally observe that the statement made that the world has 40 years' oil supply at current rate of consumption was made in the context of being reassuring. However, 40 years hence is within the life expectancy of many, if not most people living in today's highly oil-dependent industrialized societies. However, the figure of 40 years is both illogical and irrelevant, and misleads the average citizen to thinking there is no problem for at least 40 years. The reality is that a permanent world oil crisis will occur when world oil production begins to decline early in the 21st century. Most of the present world's citizens will see that time.
Copyright 1997, Walter L. Youngquist -- Posted with permissionfrom GeoDestinies, by Walter Youngquist PhD & Chair Emeritus,Department of Geology, University of Oregon;National Book Company, 1997; ISBN 0894202995
Reality:
This very misleading myth is that the "current rate of consumption" does not represent the future. The rate of consumption of almost ail resources, particularly energy, is increasing every year. The increase in resource consumption is caused by three factors: population growth, a demand for an increase in per capita consumption of a resource to increase living standards, and a larger number of uses found for a given resource. Oil is the classic example which illustrates increased demand from all three causes. Present demand for oil is increasing at the rate of about two percent annually, which means demand will double in 35 years. "Current rate of consumption" has no realistic relationship to the future.
Demand does not grow arithmetically, but increases exponentially. That is, it goes up as a percentage each year over the previous year. Therefore, the statement that a depletable resource will last for X number of years "at current rate of consumption" has little relation to the reality of the actual life of the resource. A resource may have a life of 100 years at the "current rate of consumption." But, at the seemingly low rate of a five percent annual increase in demand, the resource will only last about 36 years. Because almost all resources are finite, and the population has no theoretical limit to growth, ultimately the population by its exponential growth of demand will overwhelm the available resource.
That we are living in a time of exponential growth is ably presented by Lapp in his classic book The Logarithmic Century.(18) That the general public does not appreciate the importance of the effect of exponential growth has been pointed out by Bartlett who has written a convincing discussion of the myth of "at current rate of consumption," and the large numbers which quickly result from a seemingly insignificant annual rate of increase in use of a resource.(3) In other writings and in numerous lectures, Bartlett has pointed out, by several striking examples, that this is one of the most dangerously misleading myths to which the public is continually exposed. He states, "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
A recent example of such a misleading statement regarding oil supplies is that made by a ranking oil industry analyst on a popular Friday night Public Broadcasting System program.(30) The statement, regarding world oil reserves, was that current supplies are "...enough to last us for 40 years at current consumption rates." This statement is grossly misleading for two reasons: First, "current consumption rates" are transitory, and demand for oil will continue to increase. "Current consumption rates" have little relevance to the future. Second, if the statement was to be taken literally it would mean that for 40 years we would have the same amount of oil available as we have today, but in the 41st year there would be none. This also has no relation to reality.
The production of a finite resource is never a flat line. In broad form, smoothing out irregularities caused by political, economic, and technological events, the production is a bell-shaped curve. (Figure 8) It is estimated now that world oil production will continue to increase until about the year 2010 (see Ivanhoe, Chapter 28 and Figure 9), and then begin a permanent decline. There is little, if any, possibility that the amount of oil available worldwide 40 years hence will be the same as today. It will be less, and the critical point is when world oil production begins to decline, not when the last drop of oil is ever pumped from the ground.
One might peripherally observe that the statement made that the world has 40 years' oil supply at current rate of consumption was made in the context of being reassuring. However, 40 years hence is within the life expectancy of many, if not most people living in today's highly oil-dependent industrialized societies. However, the figure of 40 years is both illogical and irrelevant, and misleads the average citizen to thinking there is no problem for at least 40 years. The reality is that a permanent world oil crisis will occur when world oil production begins to decline early in the 21st century. Most of the present world's citizens will see that time.
Copyright 1997, Walter L. Youngquist -- Posted with permissionfrom GeoDestinies, by Walter Youngquist PhD & Chair Emeritus,Department of Geology, University of Oregon;National Book Company, 1997; ISBN 0894202995
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